
Atlantic Route, Sahel and Canary Islands: anticipating migration dynamics, reducing vulnerabilities, and strengthening cooperation.
The Spanish Institute for Migration Analysis — IEAM — organised in Gran Canaria, in collaboration with the Government of the Canary Islands, a collective intelligence workshop dedicated to analysing the links between instability in the Sahel, political and socio-economic transformations in West Africa, and migration dynamics towards the Canary Islands.
The workshop brought together a diverse group of institutional, operational, humanitarian, academic, and civil society actors. The session was held under the Chatham House Rule, with the aim of fostering an open, frank, and constructive dialogue among participants.
The workshop was based on a shared premise: the Atlantic route to the Canary Islands cannot be understood as a purely maritime phenomenon or as a challenge affecting only the Canary Islands. It forms part of a much broader regional mobility system, shaped by conflict dynamics, insecurity, poverty, youth aspirations, family strategies, diasporas, control policies, intra-African mobility, insufficient legal pathways, and increasingly adaptive facilitation economies.
The workshop brought together representatives from the Government of the Canary Islands, the Spanish National Police, Guardia Civil, the Prosecutor's Office, international organisations, humanitarian actors, NGOs, civil society, academia, European representatives, specialised analysts, and experts with direct experience in the Sahel, West Africa, and the Atlantic route.
This diversity made it possible to bring together institutional, operational, humanitarian, academic, and field-based perspectives, generating a particularly rich debate on the factors shaping the evolution of the Atlantic route and on possible public policy responses.
The workshop aimed to build a shared diagnosis of current mobility dynamics towards the Canary Islands and to formulate useful recommendations for the institutions involved.
More specifically, it sought to:
The workshop was structured around two main blocks: a first block focused on analysis and diagnosis, and a second block focused on recommendations and operational responses.
Key themes included:
Participants underlined that the route to the Canary Islands cannot be analysed in isolation. It is connected to intra-African mobility dynamics, trans-Saharan routes, the Western and Central Mediterranean, countries of transit, and European control policies.
Participants discussed whether the recent decrease in visible arrivals reflects a real reduction in migration pressure or rather a combination of stronger controls, interceptions, waiting periods in transit areas, and displacement towards other departure points.
The security situation in Mali and other parts of the Sahel was analysed as a key factor for understanding internal displacement, family decisions to migrate, youth pressures, and the evolution of routes towards West Africa and the Canary Islands.
One of the central discussions focused on the adaptation of facilitation networks. Indicators discussed included shorter waiting times, the use of closed messaging groups, staged payments, mobile money, logistical fragmentation, the shortage of experienced captains, and the displacement of departure points towards less controlled areas.
Several contributions highlighted growing concern over the feminisation of some arrivals, risks of trafficking, exploitation and forced marriage, as well as the situation of migrant children and adolescents, both accompanied and unaccompanied.
The workshop addressed the need to rethink return not as an administrative operation, but as a family, community, economic, and psychosocial process. Participants stressed that reintegration must take into account family pressure, debts, community expectations, and the need to generate real livelihoods.
Participants underlined the importance of making legal pathways credible and accessible, improving visa procedures, expanding regular and circular mobility programmes, and connecting vocational training with real economic needs in countries and territories of origin and transit.
One of the most repeated ideas was the need to anticipate the unintended effects of migration policies. Closing one route can displace flows, increase the cost of the journey, reinforce dependence on intermediaries, and transfer risks to less visible and more dangerous segments.
The workshop helped consolidate a set of strategic messages and preliminary recommendations for moving towards a more coherent governance of the Atlantic route.
Key lines of work identified include:
Building on the workshop discussions, IEAM will prepare a Policy Paper bringing together the main findings and recommendations. The document will be shared with participants and interested institutions in the coming weeks.
The Gran Canaria workshop forms part of IEAM's broader line of work dedicated to building spaces for strategic dialogue between Europe, Africa, and the Mediterranean, with the aim of translating field knowledge and collective intelligence into useful, realistic, and rights-based public policy proposals.
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