Irregular Migration Trends Towards the EU – Q1 2026

This analysis by the Spanish Institute for Migration Analysis (IEAM) examines the main trends in irregular migration towards the European Union in the first quarter of 2026, based on data published by Frontex and the Spanish Ministry of the Interior. It highlights the continued evolution of irregular border crossings, as well as changes observed in arrivals to Spain.

Decline in irregular crossings at EU external borders

In the first three months of 2026, irregular border-crossing detections fell by 39% compared with the same period in 2025, with just over 21,400 crossings detected, according to preliminary data from Frontex.

Diverging trends across migration routes

In the first quarter of 2026, the Eastern Mediterranean remained the main migratory route into the European Union, with 6,455 detections, a 34% decrease compared with the first quarter of 2025. Afghan, Bangladeshi, and Sudanese nationals were among the main nationalities using this route.

The Central Mediterranean followed closely, with 6,162 detections, representing a 33% year-on-year decline. Bangladeshi, Somali, and Pakistani nationals were among the main nationalities using this route.

The Western Mediterranean was the only major route to record an increase, with 4,402 detections, a 66% rise compared with the first quarter of 2025. Algerian, Malian, and Moroccan nationals were among the main nationalities using this route.

In contrast, the West African route recorded the steepest decline among the main routes, with 1,640 detections, an 83% decrease year-on-year. Gambian, Senegalese, and Malian nationals were among the main nationalities using this route.

Arrivals to Spain by Sea and Land Routes

Spain recorded a total of 6,218 arrivals by sea and land routes in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 11,988 during the same period in 2025, a decrease of 48.1%. However, the sharpest decline was observed along sea routes, where arrivals fell by 62.5%, from 11,609 in the first quarter of 2025 to 4,352 in the first quarter of 2026. This decrease was mainly driven by a strong contraction in arrivals to the Canary Islands, which dropped by 82.6%, from 9,424 to 1,640. This trend reflects the significant decline observed along the West African route at EU level.

Highlights

Adverse weather conditions along major migration routes towards the European Union, as well as agreements with countries including Senegal and Mauritania, are among the main factors behind the overall decline in irregular arrivals.

The evolving situation in the Middle East could lead to further population movements in the region in the coming months.